Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Bremen(+0)-Hambourg(+0) hw

This is the first out of four games in 19 days.

This one is very important for Werder Bremen side, because is the only way to play in European competitions next year, ( if qualify to the final and capture the title).
Super star Brazilian Diego is back, after he had day off last weekend. The influential Brazilian is very hot in the last games and has the ability to score and create dangerous situation for the opposite side.

Hambourg is in great form and is involv in all competitions that participate. In domestic league they are on third position, three points back of Wolfsburg and tied with Bayern Munich. In UEFA cup they meet Bremen again, in home and home games. Martin Joll did great job and is the main factor for this amazing year. The Dutch Coach gave an offensive style and inspire his players to believe theirselves.

Tonight is a K.O. game and the opportunity for Bremen to secure the place to final in Berlin. They are motivate and consentrate for the biggest task so far. With Diego to set back, Pizzaro and Almeida in front, I think Bremen have a good chance to win and to qualify to the final.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Boston-Chicago+8 home win

Chicago stunned many people with a big win versus Boston. The great performance of rookie Derrick Rose is the reason of that upset. Rose scored a record 36 points (tied up to Jabbar) as a rookie in a playoff game, plus 11 assists and dominant to Rajon Rondo in the battle of point guards.
Also Tyrus Thomas in O.T. and Joakim Noah on the boards, contributed huge numbers.

Boston played without star Kevin Garnett and expected to miss him in the postseason. This is a big blow for the title holders.
Ray Allen had a terrible night and went out with 1/12 shots, in almost 40 minutes. Without Garnett, he must score big numbers and to contribute in other categories.

Tonight is the #2 game of this series.
I expect Boston’s reaction and strong performance that will go to equalize on 1-1. The key factor to do that is the defense. In game #1 Chicago outrebounded 56-47 and shut the ball with 42,7 percentage. The defending rebound gave the opportunity to Rose to run in transition game and Chicago scored 17 fast break points against just Boston’s 6.
So if the defense tight up and control the boards, Boston has the chance to make the 1-1. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have to be the leaders, as they were all of the regular season.
I think impossible second straight amazing performance of Derrick Rose.
In this case Coach Del Negro has to find offensive weapons, other than the rookie. Ben Gordon is one threat and John Salmons. But they have to guard the Boston’s superstars Pierce and Allen and they have to focus on defense.

The fact is that Chicago brake the home court advantage and now maybe have less consecration and intensity to win second straight and do the 2-0. So I think Boston will win here with convince victory, to restore the momentum.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Udinese-Bremen over 2,5

The first game in Germany ended 3-1 for Bremen, after an amazing performance of Brazilian Diego that scored two goals.

The Germans are very optimistic about this one; despite they will play in Italy. In five away games (three in CHL and two in UEFA cup) they have 5 draws respectively. They are very attacking team and score easily.

The Italians have very tough task. They are a simply good team that makes sense after qualify against Zenit St Petersburg in the last phase of K.O. games. They are good on offensive end and especially in Italy they score a lot. They need a win with 2-0 score to pass to the next round, or if Bremen score with 3 goals differential. Possible 3-1 final score will send the teams in over time.

Both teams they have great motivation and offensive minds. So I’m going to over 2,5 and I hope someone to score early in the game.

Tonight off

I'll take off tonight because the schedulle in this final night of regular season is very tricky. Many teams will rest their stars and other they have not the motivation to play hard for the win.

The crucial games are Portland-Denver and Dallas-Houston.
In Portland the spread of 8 points is huge, but there are some doubs on Melo and Nene participation in this match.
Houston wants the win to secure the second seed on the Western playoffs, but Dallas is also wants the victory to finish strong and maybe at 6th spot (if New Orleans lost the game at San Antonio).
New Orleans will rest CP3 and David West, according sourses inside the team. But the spread of 9 points avoid any bet.

So the night have TV only and some money on live betting, if is neccesary.

NBA comments, around 5:00 ET

Later I will post some comments about NBA.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Arsenal-Villareal+1 home win

Arsenal is very hot at this moment and getting better and better. The return of key players likes Fabregas, Walcott and Adebayor, gave a big boost at the Gunners. They count five straight wins in Premiership, two wins in F.A.Cup and a qualification against Roma in stage of 16 on UCL. Coach Arsen Wenger worries only about the injuries of his defensive starters. Gallas, Clichy, Almunia and Djourou are out of this match and the problem is which one will cover the left back position. Mikael Sylvestre will play for sure either on centre back (in this case the 19year old Gibbs will cover left back position) or either on left back (move Alex Song in centre back).

Villareal traveled to London without their captain and their mind in the midfield, Marcos Senna. This absent will give start to Chilean Matti Fernandez, who is younger and more offensive than Senna, but is inexperience on this level of games.

Villareal plays with a lot of small passes and involve all the players on attacking part of their game. They have not the big body inside the box and this is the weak piece of their plan. They can threat Arsenal only with long distance shots, or with dead balls.

Arsenal has the quality and the ability to play their lovely passing game. The midfielders Fabregas, Denilson, Walcott, Nasri, are young and talented players, with their confidence in high level because the recent stretch. Also in front they have many options of skillful players, like Van Persey, Bendner and of course Adebayor.

Arsenal there is 23 games in UCL unbeaten and has 16 clean sheets on this range.

I’m backing on Arsenal’s win by more than 1 goal at 1,95 on Pinny, that I Think is a good price.



Today I'm listening Tito Puente and his Ran-Kan-Kan, for good luck.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPtG07YfKXk

Bayern M. - Barcelona

Bayern Munich – Barcelona

Is the returning match for quarter finals in UCL. The first game in Spain a week ago finished 4-0 for the Catalans. So the task for the Germans is very tough and their trip to European title, probably reach to the end. This German team, that captured the Bundesliga crown last year, almost collapsed in Spain. Their attacking approach of the game and their scoring ability simply disappeared in that evening. The gap between the two teams was bigger than the final score shows.

It is very difficult the things go round for the Germans tonight, six days only after their crashed night. They have some important returning in the defense, such as Lucio and Lahm, but the problem is they have to have the possession of the ball. And this is the weak part of their game. The midfielders are overage and they couldnʼt create dangerous situation in the opposite defense, when weʽre talk about Barcelona. Also in front they need one more attacking player, alongside to Toni. But if they use one more striker, the already fragile midfield line will be a toy in the hands of Spaniards.

Coach Klinnsman told in the media that want to win to restore the confidence of his team. He promise to play attacking football and chase the best result.

Barcelona is aware about this contest. They know that if they are not in good shape and they have not the fighting spirit, maybe they have troubles. Their quality and performances throughout the year, is the fact that makes me to believe that they will be the team to qualify from this fight.

Some other facts are Barcelona scored at least one goal always this season. So I think they score tonight again. Bayern scored easily at home. The prices on over 2,5 goals are in the range of 1,60 to 1,70.

This is my pick for tonight.



And this is for good luck.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDkVQvhZx04